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Predicting the 2007 Patriot season with College Hoops 2k7

5 January, 2007

by

With the Patriot League season about to begin, it was time for a league preview. Rather than rehash what we wrote in November, Basketball U. decided to look to a different source for information: video games. They have staffs dedicated to figuring out how good players and teams are going to be in the coming year; why not see what they think will happen? This experiment was done by using 2KSports College Hoops 2K7 on a PlayStation 2. All information is a product of simulating the 2006-2007 season 10 times and averaging out the information.

Injuries and other roster problems are unavoidable in this experiment. Lafayette’s Andrew Brown is not in the game at all, nor is Army’s freshman starter Chris Walker. Kyle Roemer of Colgate, who is going to be out all season, was listed as a redshirt in the game so he did not play. Jason Mgebroff, Pat Doherty and others who are going to miss big chunks of this season with injuries were left in the game.

Here are breakdowns of the simulations for each team. Scroll to the bottom for composite standings and scoring average leaders. Please note that all win-loss records are based on Patriot League play only, but all per-game stats are based on full seasons.

American
The Eagles averaged a total of 8.2 wins, ranging from 5 to 11. Leading scorer Andre Ingram gave American 13.6 points per game. Jeff Jones won one Coach of the Year, and interestingly Linas Lekavicius won one Player of the Year though Ingram didn’t get one. In Patriot League Tournament play, the Eagles astoundingly won 5 of the 10 tournaments. They also lost in the second round 4 times and in the first round once. Their NCAA Tournament appearances were: a 13 seed and 73-50 loss to Tennessee; a 14 seed and 62-61 loss to Texas; a 14 seed and 84-67 loss to Georgetown; a 15 seed and 72-51 loss to Villanova; and finally a 12 seed and a 75-67 victory over Memphis before losing 80-62 to 4-seed Tennessee.

Army
Army averaged 6.4 wins per season, ranging from 4 to 10. Their leading scorer was Jarell Brown, who averaged 12.3 points. The Black Knights lost in the first round of the league tournament 7 times. Once they lost in the second round, once they lost in the league finals, and once they won the Patriot League Tournament, garnered a 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and lost 67.49 to Virginia Tech.

Bucknell
The Bison averaged 8.4 wins per season, ranging from 5 to 11. The teams in the video game must not play the double-team often, because Chris McNaughton averaged 17.9 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. Four times the Bison lost in the first round of the league tournament, twice they lost in the second round, and four times they lost in the tournament championship game. However, Pat Flannery was named Coach of the Year 6 times.

Colgate
The Raiders averaged 6.1 wins, ranging from 3 to 8 in a single season. Jon Simon led Colgate with 10.5 points per game. The Raiders were one-and-done in the Patriot League Tournament 5 times. They lost in the second round four times, and advanced to the league championship before falling once.

Holy Cross
Holy Cross got 8.1 wins per season, ranging from 6 to 11. Keith Simmons led the Crusaders with 14.9 points and 7.0 rebounds; Tim Clifford averaged 11.0 points and 6.1 rebounds and Torey Thomas averaged 10.3 points. Nine of the ten Player of the Year awards ended up in Worcester, with Thomas garnering 5 of them and Simmons getting 4. Ralph Willard was named Coach of the Year 3 times. Holy Cross won 2 Patriot League Tournaments. Once they went to the NCAA Tournament as a 13 seed, beat Georgetown 70-67 and lost to 12-seeded Fordham 68-55. The other time they were also a 13 seed and lost to Duke 96-67. The Crusaders lost in the league championship game twice, lost in the second round twice, and lost in the first round 4 times.

Lafayette
The Leopards garnered 7.1 wins per season, ranging from 5 to 9. Marcus Harley, presumably starting in Brown’s place at point, led the team with 11.0 points per game. The Leopards won 1 league tournament. Amazingly they did it as the 8-seed in the league. They lost in the NCAA Tournament play-in game 72-62 to San Jose St. The Leopards also lost once in the league championship game, twice in the second round, and 6 times in the first round.

Lehigh
Lehigh averaged 6.8 wins per year, ranging from 4 to 10 in a given season. Jose Olivero led the Mountain Hawks with 13.5 points per game. Freshman point guard Marquis Hall was named Patriot League Rookie of the Year all 10 years. Lehigh lost in the first round 6 times. They lost in the second round 3 times, and in the league championship once.

Navy
The Midshipmen took up the rear, averaging 4.8 wins, with a range from 1 to 8. Greg Sprink led the Mids with 12.7 points per game. Seven times Navy was one-and-done in the league tournament. Twice they lost in the second round, and once they won the league and went to the NCAA Tournament as 15 seed, where they lost 96-55 to Florida.

Wins per season
Bucknell 8.4
American 8.2
Holy Cross 8.1
Lafayette 7.1
Lehigh 6.8
Army 6.4
Colgate 6.1
Navy 4.8

Points per game
Chris McNaughton Bucknell 17.9
Keith Simmons Holy Cross 14.9
Andre Ingram American 13.6
Jose Olivero Lehigh 13.5
Greg Sprink Navy 12.7
Jarell Brown Army 12.3
Marcus Harley Lafayette 11.0
Tim Clifford Holy Cross 11.0
Jon Simon Colgate 10.5
Torey Thomas Holy Cross 10.3

Patriot League Player of the Year
Torey Thomas Holy Cross 5
Keith Simmons Holy Cross 4
Andre Ingram American 1

Patriot League Rookie of the Year
Marquis Hall Lehigh 10

Patriot League Coach of the Year
Pat Flannery Bucknell 6
Ralph Willard Holy Cross 3
Jeff Jones American 1

One Response to “Predicting the 2007 Patriot season with College Hoops 2k7”

  1. ericatbucknell Says:

    for some reason this leads me to believe that the programming staff didnt spend too much time on the patriot league….

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